Arcipelago Innovazione. Il futuro nelle nostre mani

Recensione di William Mebane, International Consultant 

Hello Roberto, I'd like to observe your excellent book on the Archipelago of Innovation. 

You characterize this archipelago as a type of activity that arises out of scientific centers, usually in collaboration with universities and academic centers. Of course, this is not the only research being performed, and we should compare this with the investments in research by business. Businesses continued to increase their research and development (R&D) performance in 2021, spending $602 billion on R&D in the United States, a 12.1% increase from 2020. Roberto gives no expenditure data for science centers. Still, suppose we take all US universities' research and development expenditures as an approximation for science center research. In that case, academic institutions' research and development spending totaled $97.8 billion in FY 2022, an increase of $8.0 billion from FY 2021. It's important to recognize that business R&D is approximately six times that of universities, underscoring the significant impact of these business expenditures. This isn't to say that all business expenditures are solely focused on business profits. Some of them do involve ecological innovations. However, the primary aim of business research is not necessarily ecological and social concerns, but business profits. Additionally, the business outlook is typically short-term, spanning several quarters. As a result, longer-term research that isn't yet profitable may be limited. Therefore, the innovation that stems from business is substantial, five times that of science centers at the same cost ratio, and is more oriented towards short-term results. The other issue is the technological mix of business innovation. As you and I know, this has been highly conditioned by the oil and gas industry, which has, over decades, favored fossil fuel technologies at the expense of alternative energy and energy efficiency innovations. All the Western innovation by business and science centers has been too slow in these  areas. We have arrived at the paradox that the Chinese government, which has dedicated over the last decade to enormous programs of photovoltaic, energy storage, and electric vehicle innovation and development, is now substantially underselling American and European products. For example, the United States has levied 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This Chinese development has been a combination of innovation and, to a large extent, economies of scale permitted by the Chinese market. An electric city car built in Shanghai costs about 16000 euros in Italy. Therefore, we must consider this third Chinese way of stimulating innovation and economies of scale. The key is in the early identification of essential areas of innovation coupled with large investments in research and scaling up for at least a decade. The other concern is that Europe is in danger of remaining behind the US and China in research and innovation. The EU is not maintaining its economic share of activity. In 1960 EU represented 22% of world GDP, now it is just under 10 percent, “Think of any leading-edge industry – artificial intelligence, microchips, software, robotics, genomic and ask yourself (with a  few honorable exceptions) where’s the European Microsoft, Nvidia or OpenAI^” (Bret Stevens, NYT June 6). The EU, its businesses, and science centers must double down on research and innovation efforts. That is why I like your many examples of excellent European scientific innovation centers so much. A great and helpful job.